Boring Machine
Beating Ohio with cruelty.
[Patrick Barron/MGoBlog]
The second viewing feels different. Absent the terror, the dominance comes through.
From the opening drive, Hassan Haskins had a running start into Ohio State’s linebackers, if they were even there to be trucked. The early whoopings got the Buckeyes trying to beat their blockers to the ball, which let Josh Gattis dig into his bag and pull out a track star:
Ohio State was lucky to stay as close as they did. Cade McNamara’s uncharacteristic interception stood as the biggest swing play of the game by Expected Points Added, taking 5.19 EPA off the board.
The lists of most impactful plays by EPA and Win Percentage Added from Game on Paper reveal the almost boring manner of Michigan’s dominance. The top six plays by EPA belong to Ohio State; same with eight of the top ten plays by WPA. The Buckeyes held the edge in explosive plays.
Michigan made their fair share of swing plays, too. More importantly, they commanded the non-explosive plays by running roughshod over OSU.
By the math, 68% of Michigan’s runs and 60% of their passes added positive value. It felt that way. McNamara’s interception briefly derailed a train that kept building steam as Buckeyes in distress were pinned to the tracks by cackling, mustachio’d Wolverine linemen.
Runs by Haskins added 22 percentage points of win probability for Michigan.* While Haskins gets much of the credit for his uncommon mix of brutality and balance, so too does the offensive line and the coaching braintrust. This was a holistic ass-beating.
*[Blake Corum and AJ Henning added another 16% of win probability on a combined seven carries.]
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Michigan’s defense, an omnishambles last season, stuffed the nation’s best offense into a trash can then beat on the lid until the occupant cried for mercy.
Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, particularly the former, played every bit like the first-rounders many NFL draft gurus project them to be. Former Heisman contender CJ Stroud could never set his feet and get comfortable. With sack yardage removed, he averaged 6.9 yards per attempt.
The secondary guarding the hell-trio of receivers, meanwhile, surpassed even recently reset expectations. Their primary task was to keep the ball in front of them and tackle before anyone got loose. They kept as clean a sheet as one could hope given the opponent; Stroud completed one pass over 26 yards, a 39-yarder to Chris Olave that required 11 more plays before they converted it into a hard-earned touchdown.
Spectacular freshman back TreVeyon Henderson escaped for a 28-yard run — six more plays, field goal — and totaled 46 on his other 16 carries. The closest OSU got to a backbreaker on offense was a perfect throw to Garrett Wilson that required an equally impressive catch to beat Vincent Gray’s coverage.
That put the Buckeyes up 10-7. After Michigan’s next drive, they’d never hold a lead again.
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The team knew it long before we did. That much is also clear watching the game with fresh eyes. Michigan played angry, physical, and better football than Ohio State; they talked more and talked louder; they didn’t lose their cool, and when a Buckeye did, they responded with a controlled show of force.
You’ve seen the video from halftime by now but here it is again:
One team brought the noise. The other was startled by it.
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This dynamic extended to the coaches. Jim Harbaugh, Josh Gattis, and Mike Macdonald drew up a sound gameplan and called plays with impeccable feel. Michigan scored touchdowns on six of their seven red zone opportunities. JJ McCarthy’s cameo was a hit. Josh Ross got a free run at Henderson to end an OSU drive.
On the other side, Ryan Day called the game like a kid learning Madden. Ohio State ran every time they didn’t line up in a shotgun formation:
Every time!
For the last couple decades, Ohio State put more into the rivalry, and that paid enormous benefits. They beat Michigan with better athletes, better preparation, and year-round hatred.
On Saturday, the Wolverines played as the superior and better-coached team. They couldn’t be slowed on the ground; their receivers got behind defensive backs; they didn’t get shaken into pre-snap penalties; their risks were calculated and creative.
They’d been ready.
The Game has changed.
Originally published on The Bucket Problem.
